Stocks · resolved market
Will Palantir dip to $150 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5294bd2a6a7f955377aeddaf10b00d768ff40d25f21cbce3624a3c65d2be5b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 18c | 3,428$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,797.22 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 20c | 697.46$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.66 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 30c | 333$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.1 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 9c | 323.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.74 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 59c | 316$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.44 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 267$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.99 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 248.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.73 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 76c | 247.62$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.8 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 73c | 199.2$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.25 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…2438backed Yes | 21c | 177.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 21c | 175$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.13 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 14c | 158.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 11c | 128.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.96 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde61…b063backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +718%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 56c | 94.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes | 14c | 75.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed No | 79c | 69.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 29c | 65.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 37c | 63.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 73c | 43.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe754…19f4backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed No | 74c | 39.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 73c | 37.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ee…54b4backed Yes | 34c | 32.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir dip to $150 in January?this page
- Will Palantir dip to $135 in January?No won
- Will Palantir dip to $162 in January?Yes won
- Will Palantir dip to $171 in January?Yes won
- Will Palantir reach $198 in January?No won
- Will Palantir reach $204 in January?No won
- Will Palantir reach $210 in January?No won
- Will Palantir reach $219 in January?No won
- Will Palantir reach $258 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.