CS2 · resolved market
Will 100T make a roster change before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa548fbe286d6cb8b0de0593a826888ff7527c79d8ad9e947885b6e77771a5270
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7004…a778backed Yes | 53c | 2,291$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.94 | 301 | 55.8%168 W · 133 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 31c | 515$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.43 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked Yes | 60c | 375$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.61 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 66c | 320$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.4 | 285 | 49.5%141 W · 144 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 69c | 250$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…ecc7backed No | 68c | 182.69$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 31c | 125$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…0121backed No | 68c | 112.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 111$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 40c | 60.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed No | 69c | 55.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked No | 70c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf76a…b506backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -58%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 598 | 41.3%247 W · 351 L | -20.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb073…54fbbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…9f98backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.