NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa55766b6f055acb637e4a6792ecb1814464a18965783e743c3ca67fac95b687f

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: 76ersof Hawks, 76ers
Resolved: Dec 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,392
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $15,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,392 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x569e…4175backed Hawks	50c	11,002$5,480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,480.45	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.27per pick	47cpaid	-63%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers	50c	5,883$2,964 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,918.93	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed 76ers	50c	4,691$2,348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,342.33	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed 76ers	50c	700$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks	50c	656.26$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.82	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Hawks	45c	561.73$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.84	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed 76ers	55c	500$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked 76ers	57c	441.72$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.72	245	56.3%138 W · 107 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2c3…0e32backed Hawks	49c	408.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	-4.0wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hawks	43c	302.72$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.17	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed 76ers	53c	300$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141	337	43.6%147 W · 190 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 76ers	50c	250.35$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.86	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e7…85a1backed 76ers	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	195	56.9%111 W · 84 L	+20.0wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Hawks	54c	150$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	1,113	41.6%463 W · 650 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Hawks	14c	142$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.88	144	38.9%56 W · 88 L	+32.5wins	+0.23per pick	16cpaid	+228.3%equal weight	71+0.19 edge/pick
0x107c…3ef7backed 76ers	50c	114$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked 76ers	56c	92.86$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.86	535	39.6%212 W · 323 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Hawks	46c	77.07$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.27	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Hawks	45c	39$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.55	339	49.9%169 W · 170 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Hawks	53c	35.57$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.85	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed 76ers	47c	35.57$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.85	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers	59c	32$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.12	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Hawks	46c	28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b65…2d9bbacked 76ers	54c	27.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.61	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked 76ers	56c	25.09$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.09	599	48.4%290 W · 309 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked 76ers	59c	18.56$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.61	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Hawks (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event