Mls · resolved market
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5639c3f788aadb019fd1fbd5078613ffaab8b4447073b7fd3de7dc9d17d9499
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 22,101$16,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,016.79 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 16c | 6,509$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.43 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665c…307bbacked Yes | 16c | 4,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 21c | 1,901$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.5 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 80c | 1,404$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.11 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 14c | 1,286$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 22c | 1,149$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.38 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,102$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.43 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 935.77$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.28 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 31c | 930.96$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.16 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Yes | 33c | 906.06$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c45…8e5cbacked Yes | 17c | 815.81$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes | 31c | 747.72$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.61 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 32c | 741.18$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.61 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 32c | 741.18$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.61 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Yes | 32c | 741.18$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.61 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 25c | 618.88$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.28 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 32c | 607$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.75 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked Yes | 2c | 495$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 31c | 396.74$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.99 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Yes | 31c | 396.74$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.99 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked Yes | 30c | 396.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Yes | 31c | 385.65$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.55 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Yes | 51c | 319$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.3 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Yes | 25c | 259.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 21c | 252.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 251.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Yes | 30c | 233.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Yes | 32c | 230.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed No | 79c | 227.89$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed No | 77c | 195.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 17c | 187.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Yes | 31c | 179.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9303…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 175.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 78c | 155.61$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 14c | 133$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +190.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…fef1backed Yes | 16c | 127.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 31c | 124.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec5…5923backed Yes | 31c | 111.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Yes | 16c | 96.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Yes | 31c | 87.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 19c | 87.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03db…ce20backed Yes | 31c | 83.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 15c | 82.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb38…f78dbacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 39c | 66.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed No | 67c | 62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 33c | 33.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked No | 35c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 34c | 31.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed No | 70c | 28.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 66c | 26.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…bddfbacked Yes | 63c | 25.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f1…9d77backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?this page
- Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-04-04?No won
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.