Mls · resolved market
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d1fbb2d1dda5b416660f06d7eb6ab9db4c7e7852e39fca591c7fb0d0845429b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 61c | 6,480$3,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,504.08 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb453…ab57backed Yes | 11c | 5,035$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665c…307bbacked Yes | 11c | 4,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5a…4a26backed Yes | 80c | 2,426$1,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,933.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Yes | 39c | 1,506$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.88 | 79 | 74.7%59 W · 20 L | +10.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 17c | 1,376$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.73 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed No | 53c | 1,050$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.65 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 48c | 875.1$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.99 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe702…d88cbacked Yes | 4c | 829.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…c0bfbacked Yes | 4c | 680.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Yes | 44c | 652$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.29 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 77c | 620.71$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.86 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed No | 9c | 600$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 13cpaid | +515%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 49c | 458.26$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.48 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 35c | 428.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +193.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Yes | 4c | 419.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 56c | 371$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.44 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 79c | 331.33$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 19c | 301.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…f3f0backed Yes | 47c | 296$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…3f97backed Yes | 11c | 243$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 231.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 19c | 230.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 55c | 218.56$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 10c | 218.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 6c | 216.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 67c | 200.68$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe5…b025backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…8a16backed Yes | 51c | 194.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f8…fed3backed Yes | 56c | 178.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf591…39c8backed Yes | 10c | 174.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Yes | 9c | 168$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e6…5cb1backed Yes | 55c | 155.41$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 11c | 149.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 58c | 146.35$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 10c | 135.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed Yes | 44c | 130.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 11c | 129.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 32c | 122.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f60…3a69backed Yes | 25c | 105.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ba…56c1backed Yes | 33c | 99.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 80c | 86.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 25c | 78.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 67c | 73.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 71.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x589d…b958backed Yes | 43c | 71.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…f135backed Yes | 51c | 69.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ab…e7b6backed Yes | 50c | 68.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 59c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 78c | 60.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 71c | 53.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…e2d0backed Yes | 36c | 53.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 64c | 52.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed No | 41c | 50.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Yes | 34c | 38.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed Yes | 47c | 36.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…9916backed Yes | 38c | 35.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…d54cbacked Yes | 52c | 34.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed No | 73c | 33.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…7e76backed Yes | 60c | 33.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…015cbacked Yes | 65c | 32.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 71c | 28.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 54c | 22.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0aa…96f5backed No | 80c | 13.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?No won
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.