Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa58edb572f2496a69a18c358ef44b1b425796918c27affc1ce4fcc088e065cb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 46c | 786.38$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.31 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 54c | 309.77$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.59 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 166.02$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 131.25$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 131.09$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 41c | 127.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.35 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 120.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 30c | 116.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 31c | 110.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 35c | 102.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 76.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 62c | 73.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 54c | 55.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 54c | 52.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 21c | 49.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 45.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 31.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 29.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 25.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…c740backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 70c | 22.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.