Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5833283583bbf3d4d0e80925aa7e19437fb744ed01cc5a90434539b44ec3b715
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed No | 67c | 1,170$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.07 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 595.36$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 71c | 274.13$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 33c | 240$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 33c | 227.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 215.27$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 152.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 137.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 130.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 126.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 26c | 103.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 97.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 33c | 97.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 11c | 91.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 30c | 78.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 72c | 76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 71c | 69.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 33c | 63.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 63.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 17c | 62.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 55.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 63c | 52.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…c962backed Yes | 32c | 52.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed Yes | 23c | 51.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 32c | 49.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 30c | 47.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 39c | 43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 80c | 33.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked No | 76c | 32.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 69c | 30.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 62c | 24.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 18.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 74c | 18.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 18.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 16.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.