Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5d595a6110f2c18f72070bdb594f5c4844479c49abe9fe9c0deeeaac4d2ecf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 447.96$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.57 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 40c | 280.52$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 277.06$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.18 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 186.46$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 159.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 25c | 148.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 419 | 27%113 W · 306 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 39c | 128.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 63c | 121.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 121.78$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 116.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.38 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 111.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 110.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 105$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 50c | 103.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 98.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 77c | 93.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 65c | 84.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 48c | 84.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 27c | 80.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 67.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 32c | 66.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 41c | 63.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 39c | 53.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 782 | 55.4%433 W · 349 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 61c | 49.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 69c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 36c | 41.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 60c | 35.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 470 | 47.2%222 W · 248 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 30.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 29.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked Yes | 36c | 29.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a76…ce4abacked Yes | 36c | 28.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6b…5c58backed Yes | 36c | 28.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 42c | 25.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 45c | 22.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 481 | 40.3%194 W · 287 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 67c | 20.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 57 | 78.9%45 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 20.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd5…62f3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 17.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 65c | 16.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 16.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 14.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.