Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa8ddaba1a341e83acc56ef901c19d3b136a646d290a5ca6783105f3900d38d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 3c | 1,260$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 77c | 938.65$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.93 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 38c | 580.21$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.06 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 487.09$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.05 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 23c | 434$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.18 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 424.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 29c | 395.6$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 361.09$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.79 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 60c | 335.17$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.67 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 31c | 311.7$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.83 | 47 | 97.9%46 W · 1 L | +25.0wins | +0.53per pick | 45cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 89+0.35 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 294.76$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.6 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 260.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.7 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 10c | 214.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.32 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…c63cbacked No | 7c | 189.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 35c | 179.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.02 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 23c | 177.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.41 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 33c | 177$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 169.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.54 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 59c | 165.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 65c | 155.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 153.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.97 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 39c | 146.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 23c | 136$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 43c | 116.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 109$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 61c | 108.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 40c | 97.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 93.17$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 93.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 64c | 88.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 23c | 88.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 41c | 80.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 38c | 78.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 78.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 19c | 75.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 73.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 20c | 66.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 25c | 58.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 24c | 56.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 41c | 53.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 29c | 52.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 50.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 42c | 44.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 79c | 37.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 333 | 66.4%221 W · 112 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 35.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 34.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 649 | 76.9%499 W · 150 L | +100.8wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…65c0backed Yes | 42c | 31.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 29.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 37c | 29.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…f9e0backed Yes | 41c | 27.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 59c | 25.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 22.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 63c | 21.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 78c | 21.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 96 | 83.3%80 W · 16 L | +20.8wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 57c | 21.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 58c | 21.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 20.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 63c | 19.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 18.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 80c | 18.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…9df0backed No | 72c | 15.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa0…8f02backed No | 77c | 14.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.