Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6081a930d73f5fcd3b0641d3a9be305962a995c999b7127ebee35bba14af7e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf928…2da3backed Yes | 70c | 647.14$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 20c | 535$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 14c | 483$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 453.43$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.53 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 66c | 452.47$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.45 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 377.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 16c | 330.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 319.85$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.55 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 31c | 303.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 45c | 299.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 419 | 27%113 W · 306 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4118…d2ffbacked No | 32c | 234.4$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 53c | 217.69$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.12 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 205.09$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 37c | 203.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.61 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 199.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 177.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 37c | 170.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 41c | 169.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 148 | 28.4%42 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 74c | 154.56$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 21c | 152.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 10c | 133$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 61c | 111.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 20c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 47c | 107.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 416 | 51.9%216 W · 200 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 104.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed No | 58c | 95.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…da7cbacked No | 51c | 95.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1,710 | 60.8%1,039 W · 671 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 36c | 90.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 45c | 85.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…242fbacked No | 60c | 83.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 43c | 83.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 18c | 79.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 316 | 57.6%182 W · 134 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 18c | 78.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 32c | 75.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 413 | 66.6%275 W · 138 L | +36.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 32c | 61.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 61.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 31c | 58.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 49.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 66c | 47.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 235 | 59.6%140 W · 95 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 37c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 45c | 46.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cc…f2fdbacked No | 70c | 46.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6b…5c58backed Yes | 32c | 40.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked Yes | 30c | 39.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 45c | 30.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 76c | 29.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 344 | 58.7%202 W · 142 L | +18.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x519a…1551backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…102ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 63c | 23.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 49c | 23.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 942 | 2.4%23 W · 919 L | -388.2wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…4c85backed Yes | 71c | 21.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 74cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 58c | 18.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 230 | 66.5%153 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…266bbacked Yes | 73c | 14.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…9df0backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.