Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa603a4cbe91220b455a45062e7ca8b6296766bf705deaab5724d5b9fd91e2b5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 9c | 680.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 47c | 396.58$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.75 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.06 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c53…3145backed Yes | 33c | 201.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 12c | 196.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 163.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 50c | 161.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.37 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 149.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0051…5c20backed Yes | 79c | 110.6$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 26c | 103.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 33c | 101.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 89.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 62c | 81.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 31c | 81.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 80.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 42c | 79.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 27c | 73.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 67.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 32c | 64.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 59.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 30c | 58.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 79c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 35c | 56.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 28c | 55.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 28c | 50.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 80c | 50.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 31c | 48.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 47.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 45.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 38.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 32c | 38.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 33c | 37.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 28c | 36.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 71c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 32.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 71c | 32.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed No | 70c | 26.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 69c | 19.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…e292backed No | 70c | 18.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 62c | 16.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…f6e2backed No | 71c | 15.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 73c | 14.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C or higher on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.