Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa64d84d3f676e0bcccb702a593af28fb9d83d355ca809b334ac39e8238d80239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 13c | 261.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.45 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 246.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 203.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 21c | 195.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed Yes | 16c | 185.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 16c | 158.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 26c | 152.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 16c | 119.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed No | 34c | 113$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 23c | 106.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.06 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 72c | 104.61$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 16c | 91.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c3…c5c2backed Yes | 27c | 87.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…7d4bbacked No | 14c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 20c | 78.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed No | 33c | 78.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 23c | 78.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9e…cd3fbacked Yes | 21c | 67.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 71c | 61.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed No | 26c | 53.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed No | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 46.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 71c | 45.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 70c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 71c | 42.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 35.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 77c | 26.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 25.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked Yes | 62c | 23.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 77c | 23.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…721bbacked No | 77c | 21.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…a787backed No | 76c | 17.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 77c | 17.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 74c | 16.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 76c | 14.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.