Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2035a9a7f3f534ed93c088a3ef1d06a1175f75068a66fe33e8eb2ee00f4983e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 3c | 405.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 4c | 364$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 255.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 26c | 237.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 49c | 209.84$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 204.26$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 15c | 198.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 46c | 148.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 20c | 136.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed Yes | 48c | 124.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 44c | 117.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 68c | 107.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 48c | 103.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 66c | 79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 59c | 77.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 54c | 73.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…5ffcbacked Yes | 49c | 73.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…1c88backed Yes | 60c | 71.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 26c | 69.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 52c | 65.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 58.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 53c | 52.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 46c | 52.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed No | 50c | 50.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 49.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 57c | 47.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked No | 47c | 44.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 57c | 42.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 50c | 40.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 50c | 39.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 56c | 39.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 51c | 39.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed Yes | 49c | 36.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 54c | 36.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 40c | 36.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 47c | 36.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 50c | 34.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed No | 37c | 30.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked Yes | 58c | 28.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 52c | 28.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed No | 48c | 28.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked Yes | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 52c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 44c | 24.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 57c | 22.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9463…b519backed No | 53c | 22.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 50c | 20.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 63c | 16.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.