Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa68a21e0e3dadad59d874bc3dc6b4e8f2b4fb96d9b8827c90e79c601b1118e81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe086…a6a8backed Yes | 46c | 2,001$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 71c | 615.87$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.37 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 63c | 596.12$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.65 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…6364backed Yes | 69c | 422.33$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.06 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 66c | 405.59$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 55c | 389.86$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 7c | 291.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 13c | 289.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 39c | 257.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 34c | 219.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca3…3efcbacked Yes | 44c | 209.31$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 204.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 28c | 190.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 189.68$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.09 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 58c | 185.34$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…ca06backed No | 35c | 184.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 39c | 150.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 56c | 150$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 64c | 149.05$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 49c | 133.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes | 74c | 129.92$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 117.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 111.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 36c | 105.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…41a2backed No | 34c | 95.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 14c | 92.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd290…14f3backed Yes | 44c | 89.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 82.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 57c | 81.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 81.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9441…cc2ebacked Yes | 63c | 77.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 38c | 72.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c44…115fbacked No | 38c | 71.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 48c | 69.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 74c | 69.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 64c | 67.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 34c | 66.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 66c | 60.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 56c | 57.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd5…6e78backed Yes | 41c | 56.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 64c | 56.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 19c | 54.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b1…dcc0backed No | 39c | 53.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcabb…9b3fbacked Yes | 34c | 53.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 58c | 52.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 39c | 51.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 49.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 31c | 45.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 31c | 44.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 61c | 43.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202f…9c6fbacked Yes | 64c | 43.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 38.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2897…fa6fbacked No | 37c | 37.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…9c0ebacked Yes | 70c | 36.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd2…81dcbacked No | 39c | 35.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7969…9fecbacked No | 70c | 35.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 38c | 33.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…eeaabacked No | 34c | 32.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 55c | 32.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4282…ea9dbacked Yes | 50c | 32.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed Yes | 67c | 29.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 43c | 29.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 40c | 27.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3947backed Yes | 66c | 20.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd79…30edbacked Yes | 64c | 18.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…c377backed No | 68c | 17.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C or higher on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.