Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Lilli Tagger vs Xinyu Gao
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6a2f60fc49607e0bde6b8fa429845e064c9262ce1a7eac47c87d74946ad832e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Taggerof Tagger, Gao
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tagger | 59c | 3,601$2,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.61 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Gao | 42c | 3,294$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.73 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Tagger | 59c | 1,400$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Tagger | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Gao | 61c | 842.98$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.26 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | -14.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Gao | 27c | 793.88$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.82 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Gao | 41c | 690$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.9 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tagger | 56c | 570.83$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.37 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6971…d4a4backed Gao | 4c | 562$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tagger | 71c | 538.39$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.37 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Tagger | 58c | 359.43$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.46 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Gao | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Gao | 38c | 286.2$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Gao | 41c | 282.25$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.32 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Gao | 52c | 259.39$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.01 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Tagger | 59c | 258.72$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.84 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Gao | 42c | 238.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked Gao | 33c | 225$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Gao | 47c | 214.52$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.52 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Gao | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Tagger | 76c | 196$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…0525backed Gao | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Gao | 11c | 158.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Tagger | 25c | 154.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.58 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…293bbacked Tagger | 66c | 152.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 109 | 62.4%68 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c5…deeebacked Tagger | 39c | 147.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Gao | 52c | 137.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Gao | 31c | 130.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Tagger | 47c | 112.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Gao | 43c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…638abacked Gao | 42c | 102.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Gao | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -8.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Gao | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Tagger | 44c | 92.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 265 | 35.5%94 W · 171 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Gao | 40c | 92.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Tagger | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Gao | 35c | 60.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Gao | 41c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Tagger | 57c | 37.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d8…1053backed Tagger | 30c | 36.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…8b61backed Tagger | 41c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b80…b3b2backed Gao | 56c | 33.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…95d4backed Gao | 52c | 31.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Tagger | 50c | 31.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Tagger | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e4…e026backed Tagger | 64c | 27.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…0ed3backed Gao | 66c | 23.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…1068backed Gao | 66c | 21.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3270…c396backed Gao | 61c | 18.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…72a4backed Gao | 59c | 17.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Lilli Tagger vs Xinyu Gaothis page
- Set 1 Winner: Tagger vs GaoGao won
- Tagger vs. Gao: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Tagger vs. Gao: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Tagger vs. Gao: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.