Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6b7233c86093d28968e17551b2967771e3b2bf29998d4770ee75852c34ca493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 738.03$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.16 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 39c | 460.48$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.27 | 1,613 | 23.9%385 W · 1,228 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 59c | 319.2$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.36 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 240.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 195.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 194.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 61c | 186.08$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.96 | 325 | 41.8%136 W · 189 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 69c | 149.14$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 135.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 126.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 64c | 125.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 222 | 65.3%145 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 61c | 117.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 113.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 90.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 44c | 89.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 227 | 34.4%78 W · 149 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 88.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 24c | 85.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 483 | 39.5%191 W · 292 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 47c | 83.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 1,087 | 51.9%564 W · 523 L | +75.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 79.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 75.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 31c | 68.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 66.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,803 | 63.2%1,140 W · 663 L | -8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 34c | 55.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 38c | 54.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 440 | 48.6%214 W · 226 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 62c | 52.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 35c | 50.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 47.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 56c | 46.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 37c | 46.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,200 | 56%1,233 W · 967 L | +54.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 40.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 37c | 39.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 32c | 38.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 64c | 37.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 37c | 34.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…8de9backed Yes | 35c | 33.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 56c | 33.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b4…6bb9backed No | 68c | 31.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 31.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 67c | 28.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 324 | 46.3%150 W · 174 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 69c | 27.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 51c | 26.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 25.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed No | 66c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…8993backed No | 68c | 24.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 55c | 23.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 55c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…0b4ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…a821backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 653 | 58.8%384 W · 269 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 64c | 19.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.