Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6ccc8beeafbd7800a9d8e977743f4e39e55267950b78cf6666cbe5c0eb45c70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 2,174$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.54 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 73c | 964.28$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.97 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 561.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 77c | 303.18$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.4 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 299.57$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.85 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 42c | 240.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.93 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 60c | 230.76$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.27 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 11c | 191.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 58c | 188.58$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.79 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 35c | 119.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 34c | 116.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 36c | 114.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 47c | 107.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 19c | 107.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 106.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 24c | 95.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 63c | 94.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7d9abacked Yes | 43c | 88.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 85.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 72c | 79.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7013…b95bbacked Yes | 48c | 77.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 55c | 76.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 28c | 70.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 26c | 63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 24c | 61.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 44c | 60.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 57.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 58c | 55.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 51.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…4698backed Yes | 42c | 50.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 40c | 49.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 49.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 74c | 47.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 53c | 46.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 63c | 46.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 42c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…1432backed Yes | 26c | 45.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 69c | 44.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 64c | 38.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 35.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 64c | 34.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Yes | 58c | 34.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 47c | 32.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…04b7backed Yes | 59c | 31.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 31.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa6…54a4backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8c…d055backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 38c | 26.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 72c | 24.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 52c | 20.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 66c | 19.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3e…bd35backed No | 79c | 19.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 58c | 18.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…6511backed No | 76c | 18.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…b9b6backed No | 77c | 13.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C or higher on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.