Us Politics · resolved market
Hunter Biden found guilty in gun case?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6e523f1c6ed58584c815982b973774a9f174c168b24e4df02a67740ea838cc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 27c | 2,288$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.41 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…d1adbacked No | 28c | 1,764$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 25c | 1,196$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.03 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…336cbacked Yes | 75c | 1,179$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…d0a0backed No | 5c | 1,154$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 26c | 1,136$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.63 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 71c | 600.03$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.87 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 73c | 538.34$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.09 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…013ebacked Yes | 74c | 280.37$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e63…399abacked Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…6d42backed Yes | 73c | 122.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 24c | 104.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…8553backed Yes | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…faafbacked No | 29c | 85.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked No | 27c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…4810backed Yes | 77c | 68.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…eda7backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…cc0ebacked Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…b172backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da1…7c86backed Yes | 73c | 30.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…fbfabacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…8b8cbacked Yes | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65f…cad9backed Yes | 77c | 15.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.