Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6e68841b794ff08c14388e5a8025b985cb32e46876b15f8e575ce645a7e18de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,148$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.37 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 18c | 1,069$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.46 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 803.57$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed No | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 74c | 376.88$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 329.85$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.72 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 42c | 300$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.43 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 71c | 230.05$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 226.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.55 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 18c | 208.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.16 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 72c | 202.16$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 194.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 189$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 33c | 185.46$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.41 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 175.66$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 175.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 20c | 172.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.24 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 12c | 130.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d55…9dc7backed No | 21c | 113.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 16c | 105.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 23c | 103.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.42 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 69c | 101.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 28c | 98.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 80.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…0ed0backed Yes | 38c | 76.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 35c | 66.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 32c | 63.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 46c | 59.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 56.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 75c | 54.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 47.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 28c | 46.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 56c | 44.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3933…026bbacked No | 60c | 33.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 73c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked No | 47c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 62c | 27.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 75c | 26.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 55c | 23.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 77c | 23.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 73c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked No | 68c | 19.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 55c | 19.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 66c | 18.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.