MLB · resolved market
Giants vs. Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6f015816a89d9a34034610c5befc918e550ac66038c0357366e77d3be4753a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twinsof Giants, Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Twins | 51c | 7,767$3,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800.28 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Giants | 44c | 5,378$2,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,363.93 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Twins | 50c | 3,094$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.34 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e92…324dbacked Giants | 41c | 2,682$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…ee13backed Giants | 41c | 2,623$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Giants | 56c | 2,325$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd5…c889backed Giants | 44c | 2,226$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Giants | 41c | 1,959$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.26 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Twins | 36c | 1,883$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.81 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Giants | 54c | 1,853$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Twins | 66c | 1,790$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.63 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…ecbebacked Twins | 59c | 1,778$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd268…7a63backed Twins | 59c | 1,774$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…4942backed Twins | 59c | 1,753$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Giants | 41c | 1,700$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ba…0627backed Giants | 65c | 1,537$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Twins | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Twins | 47c | 1,139$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.5 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Twins | 56c | 1,117$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.28 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Twins | 68c | 1,074$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.44 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Twins | 34c | 1,011$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.52 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Twins | 58c | 986.78$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.8 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…cdc2backed Giants | 45c | 960$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Twins | 57c | 911.38$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.71 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf619…4efebacked Giants | 43c | 873.63$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.66 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Giants | 56c | 799$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.68 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Giants | 49c | 791.24$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.71 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…5fcebacked Giants | 57c | 662.23$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Giants | 71c | 649.49$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Twins | 53c | 585.72$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.91 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa364…4711backed Giants | 41c | 581.13$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…c1cebacked Giants | 58c | 523.98$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.5 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…f2f9backed Giants | 41c | 522.19$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Twins | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Twins | 54c | 462.17$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.6 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Twins | 57c | 452.63$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.63 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…9bd4backed Twins | 79c | 402.12$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.98 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…72f7backed Giants | 51c | 336.56$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Giants | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Giants | 46c | 292.87$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.79 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Giants | 52c | 285.31$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.36 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…6ffebacked Giants | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Giants | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Giants | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3def…08b4backed Giants | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Giants | 45c | 116.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Giants | 52c | 104.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Twins | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Twins | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Giants | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Twins | 55c | 84.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 1,153 | 49.2%567 W · 586 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…b4e7backed Giants | 57c | 82.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…b172backed Twins | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…f53bbacked Giants | 45c | 64.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Twins | 56c | 58.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Giants | 39c | 56.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Giants | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked Giants | 44c | 53.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | -13.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Twins | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed Giants | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Twins | 57c | 49.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Twins | 61c | 49.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked Giants | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1caa…f2f4backed Giants | 66c | 43.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Twins | 78c | 40.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Twins | 41c | 39.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Twins | 53c | 38.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Twins | 58c | 34.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Twins | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,055 | 50.3%531 W · 524 L | -10.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Giants | 40c | 31.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Twins | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Giants | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Giants | 55c | 18.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Giants | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Twins | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.