Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa700034efb177226d4aa0010535706d9333959114b8af620fd98e810afc375dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 1,023$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.04 | 2,575 | 45.6%1,174 W · 1,401 L | +12.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 76c | 568.87$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.79 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 75c | 401.28$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.28 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…a3eebacked Over | 75c | 360$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Under | 26c | 271.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 245.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 2,013 | 39.4%794 W · 1,219 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 74c | 220.42$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 711 | 50.1%356 W · 355 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 16c | 209.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 412 | 40.8%168 W · 244 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 75c | 188.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…8620backed Under | 9c | 120.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Under | 21c | 80.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 20c | 70.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 240 | 45.8%110 W · 130 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 426 | 47.9%204 W · 222 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac6…bdf8backed Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 75c | 16.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…9b6cbacked Over | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…56c7backed Over | 80c | 13.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5this page
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 0.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.