Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed0fe8145a165803c8fbf82f4af01ae11ca3a5612d69dfc792b45cf4cef31df2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cagliari Calcioof AC Milan, Cagliari Calcio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cagliari Calcio | 75c | 9,381$7,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,375.41 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed AC Milan | 29c | 5,346$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.98 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed AC Milan | 24c | 2,368$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.32 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed AC Milan | 10c | 924.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…1204backed AC Milan | 23c | 652.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked AC Milan | 24c | 207$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed AC Milan | 27c | 149.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…ccbebacked Cagliari Calcio | 72c | 122.3$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked AC Milan | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 124 | 22.6%28 W · 96 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Cagliari Calcio | 76c | 69.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Cagliari Calcio | 75c | 68.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed AC Milan | 23c | 68.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked AC Milan | 22c | 59.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Cagliari Calcio | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Cagliari Calcio | 75c | 54.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Cagliari Calcio | 73c | 36.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Cagliari Calcio | 75c | 21.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…93c3backed Cagliari Calcio | 75c | 21.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Cagliari Calcio | 77c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Cagliari Calcio | 76c | 17.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Cagliari Calcio | 77c | 13.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)this page
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 0.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.