Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65fcfaf63c60e86a3ea2c546622400d841a5a0ecd26a90f81396dfcf56342697
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 15c | 12,007$1,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.47 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 74c | 2,447$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.31 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f4adbacked Under | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Over | 23c | 987.7$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.17 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 13c | 961.54$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +120%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Over | 31c | 700$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 80c | 439.87$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.19 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 70c | 407.64$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Under | 67c | 382.09$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.09 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 28c | 350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 18c | 299.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 31c | 284.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 14c | 232.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 69c | 230.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf72…af1abacked Over | 35c | 113.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 23c | 99.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 225 | 45.3%102 W · 123 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72b…0247backed Over | 40c | 97.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 30c | 96.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed Over | 39c | 82.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Over | 23c | 65.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef89…4239backed Under | 75c | 42.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Under | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…c807backed Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5a…7070backed Under | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…8673backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 71cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5this page
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 0.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.