Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c948d2aa10657f902752d0b2e2758c187353e06b8bf44e2ba240cefe1e77f9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8056…9507backed No | 2c | 2,054$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 42c | 1,363$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.8 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 42c | 1,137$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.32 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 160 | 32.5%52 W · 108 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 58c | 1,085$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.43 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 57c | 577.21$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.24 | 393 | 54.2%213 W · 180 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 58c | 441$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.78 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 53c | 420.63$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.9 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…f9a0backed No | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 57c | 333.37$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.39 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 41c | 305.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.53 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked No | 59c | 266.1$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71da…bc9ebacked Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…8e53backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 48c | 206.28$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.27 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Yes | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 57c | 173.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 57c | 130$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…9732backed No | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 43c | 77.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yes | 42c | 76.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…0bbdbacked No | 59c | 54.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed No | 56c | 50.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe569…e759backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac6…bdf8backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 41c | 36.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed No | 59c | 36.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2854…927cbacked Yes | 55c | 35.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 47c | 28.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 46c | 27.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 225 | 45.3%102 W · 123 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadcc…9cddbacked No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 0.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Cagliari Calcio won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.