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Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,813
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,813 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes33c2,291$748 inWon+$1,542.4622715%34 W · 193 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes22c1,193$264 inWon+$928.5250919.3%98 W · 411 L-1.4wins0.00per pick20cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes27c875.65$236 inWon+$639.2354923%126 W · 423 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes27c747.34$202 inWon+$545.4265921.5%142 W · 517 L+2.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes34c656.97$221 inWon+$435.881,06110.7%113 W · 948 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x881a…ccccbacked Yes66c486.03$320 inWon+$166.3213335.3%47 W · 86 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+12.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xedc1…0a06backed Yes78c481.96$378 inWon+$103.963250%16 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No55c453.54$248 inLost-$247.8613745.3%62 W · 75 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes41c424.15$173 inWon+$250.71,8097.4%133 W · 1,676 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x625b…3a3ebacked Yes78c392.5$308 inWon+$84.791376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.28per pick49cpaid+101.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked Yes38c355.7$134 inWon+$222.1410730.8%33 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes66c322.87$213 inWon+$110.1112837.5%48 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No30c299.97$89 inLost-$88.9840748.4%197 W · 210 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe608…f6e8backed Yes40c291.95$115 inWon+$176.477852.6%41 W · 37 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa980…583ebacked Yes55c234.38$128 inWon+$106.474337.2%16 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb810…8919backed Yes27c221.09$60 inWon+$161.094628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No69c210.95$145 inLost-$145.0512945.7%59 W · 70 L-0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes62c202.21$126 inWon+$75.8612638.1%48 W · 78 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes78c200.3$155 inWon+$44.8358922.1%130 W · 459 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb85e…7354backed No5c200$10 inLost-$101020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes80c187.86$149 inWon+$38.4622323.3%52 W · 171 L+0.9wins0.00per pick23cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes58c185.93$108 inWon+$77.712541.6%52 W · 73 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97cd…227dbacked Yes64c150.84$97 inWon+$54.121942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+197.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No64c140.49$90 inLost-$90.3110155.4%56 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No20c131.51$26 inLost-$26.2118750.3%94 W · 93 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes39c128.48$50 inWon+$78.1111838.1%45 W · 73 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No79c126$100 inLost-$99.5410743%46 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes21c124.75$27 inWon+$97.9747023.4%110 W · 360 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No68c117.51$80 inLost-$79.7823260.3%140 W · 92 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No51c107$55 inLost-$54.8382435.8%295 W · 529 L-38.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes71c105.73$75 inWon+$30.9223222%51 W · 181 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed Yes43c100.88$44 inWon+$57.1512951.9%67 W · 62 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No39c89.03$34 inLost-$34.2821348.4%103 W · 110 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No69c88.59$61 inLost-$60.7113242.4%56 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0cd…d931backed No46c69.64$32 inLost-$31.741844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4880…584fbacked Yes78c64.1$50 inWon+$14.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff0e…6536backed Yes28c48.81$14 inWon+$34.952035%7 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No44c45.36$20 inLost-$19.815339.6%21 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-38.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No53c43.58$23 inLost-$22.9729548.1%142 W · 153 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No30c39.27$12 inLost-$11.8512532.8%41 W · 84 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed No70c38.16$27 inLost-$26.5433524.5%82 W · 253 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc622…e1a4backed Yes77c30$23 inWon+$6.95834.5%20 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No55c18.4$10 inLost-$10.0710845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xceb4…f81abacked No74c16$12 inLost-$11.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No79c15.42$12 inLost-$12.185712.3%7 W · 50 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.