Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04679c1310761c08a4420ad1dde8055f5ee1292c2458c6251b486446d7eae1d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 14,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,262$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 30c | 930.62$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.69 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 38c | 903.48$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.85 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…a646backed Yes | 9c | 805.47$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…f16dbacked Yes | 31c | 703.6$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 68c | 608.6$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.67 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 33c | 539.21$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.26 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 46c | 530.32$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.86 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 26c | 528.49$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.27 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 39c | 509$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.85 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 24c | 450.87$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.39 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 61c | 398.43$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.04 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked No | 70c | 391.47$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.36 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 53c | 380.26$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.72 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 78c | 341.56$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 30c | 333.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 74c | 322.7$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 32c | 322.18$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 34c | 319.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.94 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 41c | 309.31$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.58 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 31c | 298.3$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…f6e8backed No | 56c | 277.48$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.88 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 251.63$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 48c | 244.56$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 34c | 240.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 30c | 239.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 35c | 237.23$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 41c | 220.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 30c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 43c | 178.49$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 41c | 145.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 136.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 66c | 130.01$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 14c | 119$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 48c | 108$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3758…5c70backed No | 80c | 106.11$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 55c | 100.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 89.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 89.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed No | 56c | 86.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 58c | 81.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…df3cbacked Yes | 29c | 76.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 280 | 34.3%96 W · 184 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba9…2210backed No | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 30c | 68.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 65c | 68.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 66.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca6…0ae3backed No | 75c | 60.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 189 | 39.2%74 W · 115 L | +15.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 78c | 59.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…0a38backed No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 53.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 70c | 47.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 38.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…d212backed Yes | 53c | 34.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…2b28backed No | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked No | 57c | 23.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…2f2cbacked No | 57c | 22.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ce…f364backed No | 56c | 21.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…0334backed No | 71c | 14.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.