Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa73ea0638f7ee849fab1e0c34348f8b5b249dc41dc88f483db504499aa7d5e80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 52c | 1,269$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.65 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 48c | 492.77$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.32 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 34c | 362.71$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 49c | 342$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 286.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 48c | 241.74$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.02 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 230.56$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 54c | 207$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 192.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 46c | 163.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.43 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 155$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked No | 41c | 119.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 119.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 102.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 15c | 100.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 100.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 35c | 85.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 62c | 84.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…29f0backed No | 50c | 82.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 48c | 76.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 52c | 71.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 69.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 47c | 67.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 48c | 65.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 44c | 61.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 50c | 59.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 57.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 55c | 54.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 47c | 53.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 49c | 45.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 48c | 39.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 35.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 49c | 34.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 52c | 33.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d33…1e96backed Yes | 72c | 32.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 71cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 65c | 30.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 55c | 28.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 52c | 27.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…5197backed No | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 58c | 26.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 25.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 49c | 25.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 53c | 22.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf091…4a1dbacked Yes | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 48c | 21.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…c578backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…c435backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 55c | 19.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.