Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7528d38f06b688be6b15b3076cb18a042bee92f6361c57aab401e634580d859
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 581.51$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 76c | 390.06$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 30c | 343.1$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.09 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 13c | 289.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 74c | 269.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…119fbacked Yes | 52c | 266.25$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 30c | 242.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.93 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 11c | 199.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.79 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 74c | 190.84$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 26c | 181.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.96 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 40c | 176.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 19c | 172.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.08 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 18c | 168.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 155.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 35c | 153$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83df…362fbacked Yes | 32c | 147.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 42c | 146.03$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 113.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 17c | 111.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 14c | 109.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 26c | 100.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 91.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 64c | 88.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 88.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 87.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 14c | 87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked Yes | 63c | 79.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 45c | 79.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 33c | 77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 76.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 18c | 69.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…41a2backed Yes | 35c | 57.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 25c | 57.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 36c | 53.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 77c | 52.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 25c | 50.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 71c | 49.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf55…1d21backed Yes | 26c | 49.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…adf9backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4771…b432backed No | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 74c | 38.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…d0c9backed No | 35c | 36.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 28c | 36.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 76c | 33.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Yes | 59c | 32.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 74c | 29.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…d28ebacked No | 70c | 29.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 69c | 27.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 62c | 23.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.