Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd52609c258503d120ba250351d257a63166fab8a91f382ff7cec920825b73801
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 23c | 846.64$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.01 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…119fbacked Yes | 62c | 587.12$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 571.58$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 2c | 543$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 20c | 530.34$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 22c | 508.42$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.66 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 75c | 425.92$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 19c | 392.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 74c | 269.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 251.01$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 78c | 229.17$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 18c | 225$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 67c | 222.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.79 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 73c | 202.57$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 175.88$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 25c | 172.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 145.08$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 28c | 140.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 15c | 129.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 10c | 123.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked Yes | 34c | 121.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 25c | 116.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…db38backed Yes | 40c | 104.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…110bbacked Yes | 19c | 99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 17c | 93.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 92.61$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed Yes | 19c | 89.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 86.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 38c | 84.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 82.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 76.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 51c | 69.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 22c | 65.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83df…362fbacked Yes | 55c | 62.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked Yes | 56c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 56.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 79c | 54.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 60c | 51.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…b67fbacked Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 58c | 43.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 34c | 42.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 47c | 41.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 67c | 39.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c44…115fbacked No | 38c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4771…b432backed No | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 65c | 37.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 30c | 36.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf55…1d21backed Yes | 61c | 35.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 39c | 35.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 39c | 33.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 56c | 32.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…9ee4backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 79c | 24.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 54c | 22.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…90f2backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 63c | 15.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 77c | 15.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.