Serie A · resolved market
Como 1907 vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa770ca622d832a309dfa95f1ec64862e081f2cad3a0c7542cab36612372b22ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 3,934$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.1 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 11c | 1,249$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.39 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 30c | 920.77$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 678.11$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.22 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 20c | 592.69$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.21 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 3c | 508.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 10c | 501.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 79c | 352.41$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…ee64backed Over | 20c | 283.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 20c | 211$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69ed…2b21backed Over | 29c | 184$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 20c | 145$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe631…4dc0backed Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked Under | 75c | 86.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Over | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Under | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7bb5backed Under | 80c | 48.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 23c | 47.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…9479backed Over | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Under | 74c | 30.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3801…83ddbacked Under | 73c | 24.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Como 1907 vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5this page
- Como 1907 vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Como 1907 vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Como 1907 vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Como 1907 vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.