Mls · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7854a7fdb1977986b81fe42f2b71a65b65cdc0f63c322a1684707556c94e59b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Dynamoof St. Louis City SC, Houston Dynamo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa797…dedebacked St. Louis City SC | 21c | 1,586$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.17 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed St. Louis City SC | 35c | 1,460$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.55 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed St. Louis City SC | 25c | 1,396$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.17 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Dynamo | 79c | 945.69$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.75 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Dynamo | 77c | 778.7$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.77 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Houston Dynamo | 68c | 637.48$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +14.3wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +225.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Houston Dynamo | 78c | 565.5$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.41 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Houston Dynamo | 79c | 511.79$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked St. Louis City SC | 22c | 409.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed St. Louis City SC | 23c | 254.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis City SC | 22c | 176.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Houston Dynamo | 78c | 126.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed St. Louis City SC | 22c | 104.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Houston Dynamo | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked St. Louis City SC | 24c | 91.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Dynamo | 77c | 88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Houston Dynamo | 77c | 61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Houston Dynamo | 78c | 51.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Houston Dynamo | 73c | 46.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed St. Louis City SC | 35c | 36.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Houston Dynamo | 78c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Houston Dynamo | 79c | 28.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Houston Dynamo | 61c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Houston Dynamo | 76c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)Houston Dynamo won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: Houston Dynamo 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: Houston Dynamo O/U 0.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: Houston Dynamo O/U 2.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.