Mls · resolved market
St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda7c40ed4c46f21652fd182e894b70c6f162b3de2fabfe369d28808a26fcc5eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 36c | 8,382$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 13c | 3,727$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.67 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 31c | 2,766$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.11 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 12c | 2,664$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.92 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 7c | 2,547$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.32 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Over | 1c | 2,400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 68c | 2,163$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.1 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 1,820$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.37 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 30c | 1,467$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.73 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 58c | 929$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.65 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 64c | 835$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.6 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 12c | 527.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 76c | 255.73$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 32c | 254.65$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.16 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +14.3wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +225.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 32c | 243.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 6c | 236$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 70c | 161.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 69c | 147.41$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 70c | 141.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 136.09$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 69c | 128$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 19c | 123.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +13.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 66c | 112$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 32c | 110.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 70c | 105.61$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 27c | 92.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 16c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 30c | 60.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 79c | 27.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 63c | 22.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1343…813fbacked Under | 71c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +61%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)Houston Dynamo won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)Houston Dynamo won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: Houston Dynamo 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: Houston Dynamo O/U 0.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: Houston Dynamo O/U 2.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.