Mls · resolved market
St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafd4728d9e7397a3d20b5b8e934298b548289c96a2a9047759ff9513d5346bdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 53c | 4,229$2,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.81 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 48c | 4,170$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.58 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 29c | 3,483$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,465.9 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Over | 17c | 3,459$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,865.81 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 52c | 3,046$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.98 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 67c | 2,977$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.39 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 19c | 1,490$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.74 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Over | 46c | 1,048$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.87 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 929.36$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.6 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 28c | 908.32$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 790.76$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.68 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 7c | 543.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 21c | 342$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.89 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 329.87$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.82 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Under | 29c | 285$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 30c | 265.87$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.97 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 220.81$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.79 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9306…bc66backed Under | 52c | 210.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 54c | 208.66$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.29 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 49c | 202$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 69c | 172.95$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 34c | 169.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.54 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 46c | 116.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 48c | 104.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 98.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074c…771cbacked Over | 49c | 97.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 54c | 92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…4247backed Over | 41c | 84.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 46c | 83.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 46c | 81.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 23c | 79.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Over | 17c | 73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 37c | 62.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 23c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 65c | 44.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 26c | 42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 32c | 34.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…561dbacked Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 40c | 26.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 48c | 25.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -12.3wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -94.4%equal weight | 25-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…e42cbacked Over | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44dc…802dbacked Over | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)Houston Dynamo won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)Houston Dynamo won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: Houston Dynamo 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: Houston Dynamo O/U 0.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: Houston Dynamo O/U 2.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.