MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa791e5b36f878e5a6edb4cfabbe70f2af40ae6c0a720f552bfb412ee9ec093f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 11,546$6,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,184.12 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 6,519$3,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,382.51 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 6,355$3,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,513.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 479.11$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.41 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 440.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.84 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 25c | 335.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 264.46$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef9d…0f12backed San Francisco Giants | 8c | 189.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Cubs | 78c | 177.7$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed San Francisco Giants | 23c | 170.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 23c | 160.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 135.42$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed San Francisco Giants | 30c | 121$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 103.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Chicago Cubs | 24c | 84.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chicago Cubs | 75c | 54.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 51.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 48.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 45.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 42.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed San Francisco Giants | 33c | 38.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 29.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Chicago Cubs | 68c | 23.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 22.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Chicago Cubs | 69c | 20.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 19.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed San Francisco Giants | 75c | 19.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 94 | 73.4%69 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 19.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs | 74c | 17.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco GiantsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.