MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3be20d521a6ed862f9fe913264de6c0c2df4cef0334dc81824af2cfef5586546
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 30c | 5,680$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,982.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 3,167$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.01 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Over | 26c | 2,308$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 61c | 1,804$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 1,594$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 26c | 1,420$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.2 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 53c | 1,059$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.82 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…93afbacked Over | 1c | 1,035$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 420 | 41.9%176 W · 244 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 742.5$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.89 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 47c | 638.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.29 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 601.04$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.92 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 367.39$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.39 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 12c | 308$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 28c | 266.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…0cadbacked Over | 64c | 256.61$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.23 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 16c | 243.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 63c | 235.9$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 54c | 190.74$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 51c | 136.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 26c | 129.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 45c | 119.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 26c | 116.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 39c | 114.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 26c | 100.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Over | 55c | 98.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +140.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…12d6backed Over | 54c | 92.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…cb64backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 22c | 90.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 26c | 84.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 22c | 83.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 25c | 76.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Under | 29c | 66.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 49c | 62.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 24c | 57.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Under | 69c | 50.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 53c | 45.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 34c | 43.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 40c | 41.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 67c | 40.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…2cd8backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Over | 33c | 38.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 54c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a6fabacked Over | 55c | 36.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Under | 32c | 35.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 47c | 32.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 71c | 31.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 27.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 53c | 20.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco GiantsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.