MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x382350583a6044be6a947df8b6ad6e0eafb8dbf6af02a050d8eb8e5b209b2634
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 6,099$2,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,268.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 5,871$3,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,437.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 2,500$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 58c | 1,778$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.46 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 41c | 457.43$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 438.61$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.55 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 430$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 425$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 420$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed San Francisco Giants | 29c | 218.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 191$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.69 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 169.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 131.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 117$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 107.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 102$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 98.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 95.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 75.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 75.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…c5bebacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 73.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 73.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 135 | 65.2%88 W · 47 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 64.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Chicago Cubs | 74c | 62.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked San Francisco Giants | 42c | 54.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 47.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 39.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 30.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 28.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…02debacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 19.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco GiantsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.