TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,888
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,896

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,888 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants30c5,954$1,790 inLost-$1,790.0312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs69c5,324$3,674 inWon+$1,650.0111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs78c1,725$1,337 inWon+$387.938,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed San Francisco Giants22c1,493$328 inLost-$328.4487750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs69c800.03$552 inWon+$248.016,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants25c750$188 inLost-$187.59,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants15c576.11$86 inLost-$85.5110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs70c299.7$210 inWon+$89.918,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed San Francisco Giants10c133.53$13 inLost-$12.9454715.9%87 W · 460 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-44.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x24a1…32f2backed San Francisco Giants26c125$33 inLost-$32.520745.9%95 W · 112 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants32c121.8$39 inLost-$38.985,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants30c73.36$22 inLost-$22.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked San Francisco Giants31c50.65$16 inLost-$15.729354.9%161 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf395…e8bcbacked Chicago Cubs70c42.86$30 inWon+$12.862462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Chicago Cubs70c41.95$29 inWon+$12.5936250.3%182 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked San Francisco Giants30c40$12 inLost-$1277836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Chicago Cubs79c37$29 inWon+$7.822,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbc2…97c4backed Chicago Cubs70c22.73$16 inWon+$6.82650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc5e…f0c5backed Chicago Cubs70c21$15 inWon+$6.39473.4%69 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick74cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Chicago Cubs70c14.3$10 inWon+$4.291,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.