MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7e4166f17cd569f3b6321db925b106dcb8f07e65060cbec3107d236981c1c14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 50c | 25,000$12,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,512.96 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Under | 55c | 18,166$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,165.5 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 16,787$8,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,552.08 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 16,667$8,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,157.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 48c | 13,143$6,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,845.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Under | 55c | 12,900$7,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,834 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 6,273$2,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,911.91 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 5,582$2,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,429.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 4,626$2,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,207.81 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 3,500$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 3,482$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.88 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 35c | 2,229$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 1,523$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.5 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 1,491$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 1,321$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 35c | 941.71$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.6 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 48c | 651.29$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.62 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 573.47$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 47c | 546.3$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.06 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 420$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 35c | 405.7$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 49c | 327.83$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.08 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 53c | 299$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.53 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 35c | 281.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 27c | 256.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.93 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 54c | 236$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.56 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…0cadbacked Under | 61c | 234.98$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Under | 44c | 234.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.59 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 56c | 216.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.24 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 54c | 215$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Over | 30c | 190.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…650fbacked Under | 54c | 184.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 180.77$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 56c | 167.22$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 35c | 154$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 150.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 42c | 134.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 35c | 117.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 58c | 108.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 42c | 105.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 32c | 100.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 62c | 82.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Under | 54c | 81.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 58c | 77.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 21c | 72.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 34c | 71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Under | 39c | 70.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 35c | 70.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Under | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Under | 55c | 64.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 46c | 60.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 35c | 54.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 45c | 54.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 55c | 54.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 50.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 51c | 46.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 49c | 45.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 25c | 44.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 31c | 43.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Over | 46c | 40.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 38c | 34.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 41c | 28.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 27.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Under | 59c | 25.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 46c | 24.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Under | 55c | 23.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Under | 54c | 22.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Under | 58c | 21.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco GiantsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.