MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7a46a2a97f257043208d7ba80e57768389a00bb3157f5019a31346e0c5b7866
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 22c | 2,525$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.84 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 1,850$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.03 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 21c | 273.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 78c | 197.37$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 21c | 168.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 21c | 156.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 79c | 132$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 80c | 125.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 78c | 103.9$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…bc53backed Under | 78c | 89.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 79c | 63.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 79c | 58.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 78c | 42.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 78c | 39.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Under | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 78c | 23.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…5703backed Under | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 79c | 16.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 79c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.