MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe510ba69ce99a2f84f46bdc7e8e140ffbaea54be524ae266ba390582e4cc36c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 33,229$16,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,656.85 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5234…4c4fbacked Over | 55c | 25,598$14,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,519.24 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 5,578$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,569.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 3,048$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 69c | 2,886$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,981.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Under | 4c | 1,909$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 1c | 1,296$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Under | 10c | 1,250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Under | 45c | 1,110$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.49 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 48c | 886.52$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.62 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 800$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 64c | 624.99$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.79 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 591.96$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 56c | 588.67$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.84 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 75c | 588.18$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.9 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 43c | 453$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.79 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 68c | 447.88$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.44 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb97…7ae1backed Over | 39c | 442.8$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.13 | 85 | 34.1%29 W · 56 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Under | 22c | 399$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 55c | 359.65$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.26 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 53c | 320.39$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.8 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 55c | 290.91$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.91 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 43c | 284.61$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.38 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 35c | 276.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.39 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 55c | 230$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 46c | 218$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 29c | 205.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.71 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 57c | 198.71$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 34c | 176.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.62 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 25c | 169.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.68 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Over | 27c | 168.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.48 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 45c | 149.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 40c | 143$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 133.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Over | 57c | 129.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 65c | 122.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 43c | 121.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 33c | 108$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 58c | 105.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 29c | 100.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Over | 29c | 100.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 50c | 99.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 57c | 96.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 55c | 93.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 56c | 88.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed Over | 55c | 87.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 59c | 84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 70c | 65.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 54c | 64.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 29c | 62.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 77c | 60.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Over | 29c | 51.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Over | 29c | 49.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 54c | 48.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 37c | 41.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 34c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Over | 56c | 34.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 40c | 34.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over | 34c | 34.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Over | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93c…475ebacked Over | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 72c | 24.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 56c | 21.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 56c | 19.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 64c | 16.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.