MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc696a0d3f5cf448a8a84fe36c5df0ab5bc3de32aa8ae48fdea1f96ed9d4a459d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed Over | 33c | 2,100$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 1,788$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 1,302$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 45c | 1,283$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.35 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 37c | 993.24$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.45 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 63c | 956.96$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.08 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 37c | 889.95$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.9 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 33c | 820.64$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.83 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…7f76backed Under | 63c | 800$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 68c | 397$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.01 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 67c | 358$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.14 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Under | 66c | 204.76$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 34c | 190.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 127.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 68c | 119.4$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 46c | 113.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 62c | 100.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 31c | 96.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 32c | 91.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f31…2d48backed Under | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 58c | 48.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 72c | 39.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…f619backed Under | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.