MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa03fabd13beb08286fa1edfc7b6a0c93e5bc65ed395a1f0b6bd183dd1b0a73bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Yankees, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed New York Mets | 45c | 3,371$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.11 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees | 53c | 1,694$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed New York Yankees | 64c | 1,565$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Yankees | 46c | 1,022$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.99 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked New York Yankees | 9c | 750.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 39c | 704.31$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked New York Yankees | 11c | 659$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 31c | 575$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.01 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked New York Yankees | 21c | 424.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 43c | 422.14$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked New York Yankees | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 54c | 320.4$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked New York Yankees | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked New York Yankees | 17c | 250$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked New York Yankees | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 38c | 82.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…48a4backed New York Mets | 70c | 72.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked New York Yankees | 45c | 69.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed New York Yankees | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed New York Yankees | 46c | 60.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Yankees | 48c | 59.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked New York Yankees | 35c | 46.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked New York Yankees | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed New York Mets | 55c | 32.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked New York Yankees | 48c | 24.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed New York Yankees | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed New York Mets | 58c | 21.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…c5aebacked New York Mets | 56c | 20.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.