MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68b35265b7c2d2743664eaa32cef5007603710343c1f948dfd2863b32d15965a

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, New York Mets
Resolved: May 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $28,155
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $30,798

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,155 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe1a2…14b8backed New York Yankees	45c	12,214$5,471 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,743.13	182	41.2%75 W · 107 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets	55c	7,006$3,861 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,860.98	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed New York Mets	57c	3,152$1,797 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,796.64	920	54%497 W · 423 L	+23.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ab…97b6backed New York Yankees	43c	3,000$1,290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,710	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+3.0wins	+0.25per pick	50cpaid	+47.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets	56c	2,921$1,631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,630.83	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed New York Mets	55c	2,364$1,307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,307.19	2,369	47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed New York Mets	56c	1,551$869 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$868.71	1,284	49.5%635 W · 649 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees	75c	1,212$912 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.61	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e9…1c08backed New York Yankees	44c	1,144$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$644.48	32	65.6%21 W · 11 L	+4.5wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+34.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees	42c	742.5$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$427.18	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets	46c	700$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked New York Mets	56c	699.98$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.39	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees	76c	672.41$512 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees	45c	599.41$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$330.72	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed New York Yankees	43c	581.4$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$331.4	293	44.7%131 W · 162 L	+13.0wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked New York Mets	57c	502.25$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.28	124	49.2%61 W · 63 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked New York Yankees	45c	500$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$275	603	50.1%302 W · 301 L	-10.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed New York Mets	55c	500$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	550	52.4%288 W · 262 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e4a…5ba6backed New York Yankees	44c	491.97$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$275.5	115	42.6%49 W · 66 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees	76c	454.27$344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.83	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed New York Yankees	45c	404.36$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224.36	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees	79c	353.01$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.6	4,381	44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L	+77.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed New York Mets	56c	339.08$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…83dabacked New York Yankees	43c	327.6$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.73	138	51.4%71 W · 67 L	+6.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets	42c	312.13$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.51	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed New York Yankees	44c	227.3$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.29	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+5.6wins	+0.12per pick	44cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed New York Yankees	44c	227.27$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.27	383	53.8%206 W · 177 L	+16.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed New York Mets	23c	205$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.15	570	46.8%267 W · 303 L	+14.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets	56c	199.98$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.99	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84f8…27f1backed New York Yankees	44c	197.73$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.73	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked New York Mets	58c	193.1$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	1,000	52.4%524 W · 476 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c59…ad51backed New York Mets	29c	172.41$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	215	45.6%98 W · 117 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked New York Mets	56c	139.22$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.96	1,014	47.7%484 W · 530 L	-28.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed New York Mets	56c	114$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.84	726	48.1%349 W · 377 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed New York Mets	63c	101.27$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.64	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Yankees	39c	91$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.51	1,723	50.3%867 W · 856 L	+55.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed New York Mets	57c	90$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.3	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	+25.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa188…62eabacked New York Yankees	45c	88.89$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.89	242	48.8%118 W · 124 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b3…4756backed New York Mets	56c	88.6$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	130	46.9%61 W · 69 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3146…d153backed New York Mets	56c	88.6$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	177	49.7%88 W · 89 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked New York Mets	56c	88.6$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	120	49.2%59 W · 61 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x389d…995fbacked New York Mets	56c	88.6$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	131	44.3%58 W · 73 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e45…39dabacked New York Mets	56c	88.58$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	185	47.6%88 W · 97 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Mets	56c	78.5$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.96	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c94…1b47backed New York Yankees	43c	69.77$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.77	65	50.8%33 W · 32 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed New York Mets	57c	63.85$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.39	292	55.8%163 W · 129 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed New York Mets	56c	60.36$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked New York Yankees	79c	60$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.6	418	36.4%152 W · 266 L	-31.6wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked New York Yankees	55c	55.56$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	373	57.4%214 W · 159 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…069bbacked New York Mets	45c	55.56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	163	45.4%74 W · 89 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked New York Yankees	39c	55.38$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.78	1,014	50.4%511 W · 503 L	+52.0wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets	63c	51.96$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.73	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed New York Yankees	43c	50.73$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.14	1,001	48.3%483 W · 518 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets	55c	50.17$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed New York Yankees	45c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.5	689	42.2%291 W · 398 L	+18.7wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees	39c	44.4$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.08	5,127	54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L	+232.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed New York Yankees	39c	36.45$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.09	753	44.1%332 W · 421 L	-10.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3333…6bc6backed New York Yankees	43c	34.88$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.88	77	59.7%46 W · 31 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee11…19a9backed New York Mets	62c	32.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	115	53%61 W · 54 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked New York Yankees	37c	31$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.53	1,843	43.6%804 W · 1,039 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNew York Yankees won
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Yankees won
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Mets won
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Mets won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event