MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9edefc8aa5781ada37b3370b6b9b0a8e390efb647b3c09db37cb1d35414e0cfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 40c | 16,977$6,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,730.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 46c | 13,901$6,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,566.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 63c | 6,856$4,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,322.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed New York Yankees | 67c | 4,466$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.3 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 57c | 2,730$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.69 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Yankees | 61c | 2,126$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.68 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees | 51c | 869.88$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.32 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Mets | 69c | 727.22$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.14 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked New York Mets | 2c | 659$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed New York Yankees | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.16 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed New York Mets | 65c | 483.22$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.62 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked New York Yankees | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed New York Yankees | 62c | 175.84$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 76c | 169.55$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.76 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked New York Yankees | 40c | 144.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.29 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked New York Yankees | 48c | 140.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 28c | 128.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 31c | 121$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked New York Yankees | 53c | 79.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed New York Yankees | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed New York Yankees | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked New York Mets | 24c | 51.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked New York Mets | 68c | 49.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed New York Mets | 68c | 49.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 73c | 49.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 45c | 44.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed New York Yankees | 67c | 34.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Yankees | 74c | 33.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed New York Yankees | 68c | 31.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed New York Yankees | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1833…cc31backed New York Yankees | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed New York Yankees | 57c | 24.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed New York Yankees | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked New York Yankees | 76c | 16.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.