NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7b159e7ac9460b845d6a23141126a38d31d163b950c199f363cdc6d2d26408e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over | 51c | 3,500$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 50c | 2,160$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 777.35$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.7 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 50c | 692.04$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.02 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab89…aa9bbacked Under | 46c | 471.43$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 430.95$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.1 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 53c | 380.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.26 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 342.27$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.61 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 49c | 258.53$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 49c | 242.04$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 64c | 238.96$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.78 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 49c | 210$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…f42dbacked Under | 51c | 196.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…a0f2backed Over | 52c | 194.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.07 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 41c | 136.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 135.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4d…5413backed Over | 51c | 127.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…5c73backed Under | 51c | 127.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 104$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 43c | 102.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…9bcabacked Over | 57c | 101.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x922e…7d04backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 626 | 52.2%327 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 49c | 76.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…4ab2backed Under | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 50.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…788dbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…b88dbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 55c | 45.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…7ab1backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 36.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 34.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0c…a3e0backed Over | 50c | 33.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 49c | 30.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…648ebacked Over | 51c | 21.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.36per pick | 49cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dec…61b7backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0df…a1dbbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5this page
- Cam Spencer: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Hawks vs. GrizzliesHawks won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Over won
- Santi Aldama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.