NBA · resolved market

Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6027f55fd7ef3f9f640f06fdc3246113ae88820a291a02d8084039b1ac0c4b2d

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hawksof Grizzlies, Hawks
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $63,785
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $64,373

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,785 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbf51…4a30backed Grizzlies	46c	21,739$10,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,000	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Hawks	54c	21,227$11,463 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,764.49	404	46.8%189 W · 215 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Hawks	55c	10,971$6,034 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,937.04	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Grizzlies	45c	7,500$3,375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,375	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Grizzlies	51c	6,920$3,529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,528.96	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hawks	49c	6,431$3,149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,282.56	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Grizzlies	49c	4,000$1,960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,960	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks	53c	3,940$2,071 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,868.92	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Grizzlies	53c	2,811$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	211	43.1%91 W · 120 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Grizzlies	46c	2,552$1,174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,174	240	51.3%123 W · 117 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks	47c	2,264$1,064 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,199.75	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies	45c	2,248$1,012 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,011.55	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Hawks	51c	1,580$806 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$774.2	1,085	63.6%690 W · 395 L	+86.7wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Grizzlies	47c	1,034$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.3	238	45%107 W · 131 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Grizzlies	51c	1,000$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	509	54.8%279 W · 230 L	+14.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Hawks	54c	999.99$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460	629	48.6%306 W · 323 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies	45c	955.99$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.2	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Hawks	49c	923.46$452 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$470.97	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Grizzlies	48c	562$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.2	1,163	52.8%614 W · 549 L	+22.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Grizzlies	45c	561$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.45	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Hawks	54c	555.56$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.56	379	30.6%116 W · 263 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf673…68ecbacked Hawks	55c	545.45$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.45	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed Grizzlies	47c	543.44$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	188	52.7%99 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Grizzlies	48c	500$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	207	54.1%112 W · 95 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Hawks	52c	480$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.4	241	38.6%93 W · 148 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Grizzlies	19c	453.19$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.69	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hawks	45c	449.04$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$248.38	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4592…49b6backed Grizzlies	50c	411.84$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.92	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6077…ad46backed Hawks	50c	411.84$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.92	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Hawks	54c	370.37$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.37	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c1…18c7backed Hawks	49c	299.98$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.99	140	42.9%60 W · 80 L	-9.1wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e5b…a569backed Hawks	54c	296.3$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.3	238	47.1%112 W · 126 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Hawks	49c	220$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.2	114	43%49 W · 65 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x516b…5a77backed Grizzlies	47c	212.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+18%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Hawks	52c	210.62$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.1	492	49.8%245 W · 247 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Grizzlies	45c	208$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.17	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Grizzlies	51c	202.38$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.21	530	43.8%232 W · 298 L	-25.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x843a…2687backed Hawks	56c	200.66$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.29	59	47.5%28 W · 31 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Hawks	48c	199.99$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.99	86	59.3%51 W · 35 L	+6.4wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Grizzlies	48c	199.99$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.99	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Grizzlies	52c	198.5$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.06	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Grizzlies	40c	178.86$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.36	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Grizzlies	46c	175.77$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.85	389	47.6%185 W · 204 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Grizzlies	51c	165$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.15	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1307…608cbacked Grizzlies	51c	157.88$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-2.5wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Hawks	54c	148.15$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.15	195	48.7%95 W · 100 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Hawks	55c	145.45$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.45	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Grizzlies	54c	139$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.04	193	50.3%97 W · 96 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee4f…c0f0backed Grizzlies	51c	131.37$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	67	50.7%34 W · 33 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46df…b057backed Hawks	54c	129.63$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.63	211	64.5%136 W · 75 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	64cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6f1f…c2b7backed Hawks	56c	126.02$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.02	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+80%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e70…14babacked Hawks	49c	111.78$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.01	166	42.2%70 W · 96 L	-11.2wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd402…5a50backed Hawks	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	280	58.2%163 W · 117 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…fd21backed Grizzlies	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	140	36.4%51 W · 89 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Hawks	56c	89.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.29	265	53.2%141 W · 124 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Grizzlies	45c	88.88$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Grizzlies	46c	88.11$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.71	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hawks	48c	83.42$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.38	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf1c…c085backed Grizzlies	51c	80.71$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.86	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c04…2e2dbacked Hawks	53c	64.13$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.13	506	48%243 W · 263 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Hawks	49c	61$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.11	712	45.8%326 W · 386 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Hawks	54c	57.86$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.63	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Hawks	54c	55.56$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.56	324	50%162 W · 162 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Grizzlies	45c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	319	47.6%152 W · 167 L	-18.8wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5ea…52dbbacked Grizzlies	49c	39.39$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	75	46.7%35 W · 40 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Hawks	50c	38.96$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.48	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8677…4d2cbacked Hawks	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	156	43.6%68 W · 88 L	-8.0wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x049b…ebb2backed Grizzlies	48c	36.46$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Grizzlies	41c	34.5$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Grizzlies	46c	32.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	165	46.1%76 W · 89 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Hawks	52c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.5	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dfd…920fbacked Hawks	54c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Grizzlies	37c	29.8$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	397	36.3%144 W · 253 L	-27.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Grizzlies	49c	29.48$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Grizzlies	47c	27.59$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.97	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies	47c	26.3$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Hawks	55c	26$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.7	333	60.4%201 W · 132 L	+17.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Hawks	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	380	48.7%185 W · 195 L	-12.0wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc04…754dbacked Hawks	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.7wins	+0.29per pick	54cpaid	+53.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)this page
Cam Spencer: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Hawks vs. GrizzliesHawks won
Hawks vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineHawks won
Hawks vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Over won
Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Over won
Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Over won
Santi Aldama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Hawks won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event