NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dcaf5219355d3831910b74869e25d4d1d0066d19eae5fc9b56100fb6f6ecf07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 55c | 5,440$2,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,448.13 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 17c | 2,735$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.56 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 2,726$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 2,180$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.05 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Under | 46c | 535.28$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.04 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 15c | 321.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Over | 73c | 261.09$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.23 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 253.75$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.19 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…585fbacked Over | 57c | 222$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…8a1dbacked Over | 58c | 206.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 54c | 133.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 43c | 114.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 45c | 114.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 82.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…5c8ebacked Under | 27c | 78.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 36c | 70.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Under | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 42c | 38.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Under | 43c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 53c | 30.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 312 | 49.4%154 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 44c | 29.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 55c | 29.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 48c | 27.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed Over | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 127 | 66.9%85 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 54c | 23.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 68c | 22.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…a497backed Over | 56c | 20.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5this page
- Cam Spencer: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Hawks vs. GrizzliesHawks won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Over won
- Santi Aldama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.