NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47fae5415d31444bc6b279653f3645cd2ff487ea5131573da5fa9978fa76817d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Under | 42c | 1,789$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.12 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 1,662$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 1,590$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.81 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 57c | 343.86$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.86 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…585fbacked Over | 59c | 300$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 57c | 294.96$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.83 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 12c | 250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 75c | 190.06$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 60c | 165.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 40c | 98.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 57c | 85.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 60c | 73.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 39c | 57.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 51.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Under | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 44c | 29.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 60c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5this page
- Cam Spencer: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Hawks vs. GrizzliesHawks won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Over won
- Santi Aldama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.