Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7fdfc4c605fb9d5122a0c23fec00ff6b7fb43d6d60a8a2b40f1c1bfff25d8f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 26c | 753.87$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.98 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 62c | 551.95$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 531.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.96 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 520.72$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 5c | 499.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 33c | 478.7$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.88 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 6c | 393$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 7c | 356.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 243.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.78 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 33c | 220$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 22c | 199.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.98 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 30c | 180$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 67c | 153.08$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 146.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 27c | 142.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 74c | 142$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 122.59$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 67c | 113.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 72c | 113$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 109.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 105.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 72c | 103$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 100.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 35c | 95.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 88.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 25c | 87.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 84.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 82.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 78.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 61.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 55.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 53.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 26c | 50.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 50.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 49.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 75c | 47.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 68c | 47.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 45.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 41.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 73c | 41.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 78c | 38.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 79c | 37.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 35.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 75c | 33.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 28.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 74c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 24.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 78c | 23.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 73c | 18.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 17.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.