La Liga · resolved market
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa857eff1bfe2e94865455b2a032fd33205b65a318eb64389b6b483b21a7c711e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 64c | 51,889$33,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,440.14 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 35c | 27,237$9,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,533.01 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 11,746$3,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,052.13 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Over | 36c | 10,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.97 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 15c | 1,725$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.42 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +14.3wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +150%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b7…dbdabacked Under | 63c | 1,666$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 36c | 1,595$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.86 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 8c | 1,506$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.39 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 1,413$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.78 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 66c | 630$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.48 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -10.3wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 17c | 572.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.74 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 37c | 409.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 8c | 328.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 34.7%52 W · 98 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 41c | 227.29$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.14 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Under | 7c | 220.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.33 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +15.1wins | +0.30per pick | 14cpaid | +663.6%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 30c | 214.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd66…48e4backed Over | 36c | 149.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 72c | 97.42$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Over | 29c | 86.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 26c | 66.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…6015backed Under | 62c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Over | 35c | 56.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…bf36backed Over | 38c | 54.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Over | 38c | 52.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 30.4%58 W · 133 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 63c | 43.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…8cbdbacked Under | 63c | 41.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 240 | 47.9%115 W · 125 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 62c | 38.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2de5…4a03backed Over | 39c | 36.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 36c | 31.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22c9…9764backed Under | 64c | 31.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…7afcbacked Over | 38c | 31.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17cf…bf6abacked Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Over | 36c | 29.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Over | 36c | 28.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…38cebacked Under | 76c | 26.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a0…511ebacked Under | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…3a9dbacked Under | 73c | 24.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 66c | 20.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 4.5this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.